welcome to March!

 

The cold, somewhat messy March lion has arrived!

After a five-day rally to make February into an above-average month (105%), March cones in chilly. The 7-day forecast is for about 1½" of wet snowflakes; we have a solid trace on our deck and in our grass as I type, and a snowy mix is falling.

It seems that our groundhog lied. Break out the pitchforks and torches!!

Update. The early forecast was for perhaps 2" total snowfall, at best an inch each night and gone the next afternoon. Reality was more exuberant: over 9" on the ground at maximum, which today (3/8) is still three inches on deck and driveway! 

Exuberant indeed. 

late-month rally

 With five days to go, February was 39% of normal for precipitation. That's asking a lot of five days.

And then it began to rain.

As of this morning we're at 60% - and forecasts add about 2½" more (thanks to having a 29th  day this year!). If this pans out we'll have (a) two really wet days, and (b) 105% of normal!

Let's find out..

Update, 28 Feb. Now just 0.8" short of average (87%) -- and the cold front is making its appearance at the coast! We never used to have such detail, but the somewhat recent addition of a radar near Aberdeen really improved the up-wind view.

The next seven days are quite damp, showing that the first few days of March 

will come in like a lion - and not just for us!!

California takes a turn

February has been less damp than recent months, as the rapidly weakening el Niño sends moisture south of us for a while. We're around 30% of normal halfway through the month.

Our coming week has perhaps an inch of rain, but several recent forecasts have been too enthusiastic about amounts. We even flirted with a snow forecast this week, but in the end the cold vs. moist boundary ended up closer to Olympia. Oh look; our forecast now has a 900-foot snow level tonight..

Next fall looks like we're back to La Niña - but many climate folks are now wondering if enough global change has been wrought to break our conditioned expectations. It's always been clear how things settle out in Niña and Niño years.. but last year's California weather was not typical at all. Lake Manly (aka Badwater / Death Valley) formed after Hurricane Hilary and it's been replenished by recent storms; Tulare Lake reformed and hasn't vanished either. Perhaps we need to watch a few more cycles before throwing out all our experience; we'll find out!

Back to normal

 Version 1: temperature is now above 45° and snow is down to tiny patches. A half inch of rain has fallen today so it may all be gone by sunrise. The melt plus rain was nearly 2"!

Version 2: with a week to go, January should end up at least an inch above normal (OK, 2½" above as of the 27th!). That means our water deficit since October will be a surplus.. for a little while, at least. 

a first glance at winter

Our moisture has come from the south so far this rainy season, so ski resorts and winter-focused events have not fared well. Many storms near California will do that, and el Niño often leaves its mark to our south, pushing warmer air our way to limit snowpack. It does not make us immune to winter weather though!

Today's Wx-Underground forecasts have turned toward snow about a week from now, which is surprising. Many models have made this shift, however; shown here is the well-regarded European model's view on Friday morning 1/12. This is pretty much the classic pattern for white weather down low, with cold air just onshore and marine moisture willing to be pulled in just to its south!

This could change in six hours with the next model runs, and in the course of a week's modeling the timing and location will likely revise a few more times. Still, it's notable. 

We'll be watching..

7Jan update: the forecast has twisted several times as to depth of cold air and accumulation, but the 12-13th remains white at our 750' elevation. Values have varied from 3½ to 12 inches from run to run!

7-16 recap?

Curiously enough, winter weather began abruptly on Tuesday the 9th, with over 6" on the ground on Tuesday morning. It was a strong suspicion but nothing more on Monday night as we drove back from Anacortes in downpours.

That settled down to 4" by Friday 1/12, when we topped off the crunchy old snow with 4" of fresh true powder. The arctic front dropped us to 16° at night through Monday the 15th. Today the cold air was overrun by a front coming from the SW; only a pinch of fz/rain has fallen so far, and the forecast has us above freezing by sunrise. It will take a day or two for the snow to vamish, but the wild times will return to normal in 36 hours or so.

7-17 - It was a good try, but it took until 10am to reach freezing, and 2pm to reach 35. 

Time to start shoveling the driveway!

yet another storm.. then some peace?

 

We've had three or four atmospheric rivers in the first week of December, putting us at 2/3 of normal monthly rainfall already. A quiet day today, then another punch coming for Saturday. 

Hints of a few days of quieter weather are showing on the models. Not entirely dry perhaps, but fewer 2-inch hits of tropical temperatures and rainfall. We'll see how it pans out. The forecast for the first week of December was 5-6 inches, and it was correct at this location - 5.65" for Dec 1-6, plus 1/2" on the 7th and 1/3" on Nov 30th.

another dry-ish month. And then..

We've reached the 22nd and the forecast is for a dry week. As we sit at 79% right now, it means another sub-standard month will go in the books without a large shift in the forecast.

Since November through January are the wettest of months here, being around 80% is a decent amount, just over seven inches - but last winter all three were drier than average and that's a bad habit to get into!

El Niño is upon us, big time this year, which often means weaker storms for us as more energy dives south to California. It often strikes early in the calendar year, so more storms in December would be a very good thing. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

Update - maybe 1/4" on the 30th, but probably closer to 0.10". And then the floodgates open - as the models seem to do quite often at the turn of a month. I'll footnote this for certain to see how close we come to it! At our location we'll call it 5" - but the neighborhood is 4-9"  and boundaries are rather vague at this scale! 

This graphic runs through 4PM on the 4th, so nearly everything here is December 1-4.

11/30 update - wx. underground 1-6 Dec. Six-ish in the forecast. Today is at .21" with a pinch more possible around midnight.

skeptical

 We shall see how November starts - but given that most October forecasts came up short, this looks pretty .. enthusiastic.

Here's the news 7-day map. It also appears to be convinced.

Update - Nov 1-7 total ended up at 4.8", a bit lower than most forecasts but not a bust for a wide-area map that put us in the 5-7 inch range. Monday's rain was from the 3rd atmospheric river of the bunch and was pegged as the weakest, but location is everything with such streams of moisture. We had 1½" for the day and its the 4th day since mid-October to be over 0.85". 

We're over 50% for November after the first seven days! The upcoming week may only add an inch or so, putting us at six inches at mid-month. Time will tell, as it so often does..

Updates, on many subjects

 October has been ..active. Here's a summary of the Story so far:

• My health is pretty decent after surgery, but it took several days to be sure that the gut aches were gone since the surgery hurt the same areas of my gut! It seems that all went fine, best evidence being my late-evening discharge. I'll learn more from the doctors in early November.
• Weather has been underperforming for the month, as every large forecast has dried out upon reaching us. Split flow is common with el Niño patterns, as strong fronts are spun up to our north and the southern end does a soft landing near the California border. Maybe they will consolidate more in coming weeks, but October is looking like a 50-60% kind of month.
• Camera gear was a surprise, as the new acquisitions of recent months all slipped through my willing fingers. I'm back to an eM1 and K-s2 - and am convinced that these are the best fits and image quality that I need. I'm a big fan of 4:3 images, more so than 3:2; thankfully Pentax crops to square and 4:3 very easily after capture.

So things are going decently well, other than the somewhat dry weather. More coming tomorrow though!

The next waves

After a nice few days in the 70s, the next cold fronts are set to drop in for a visit. Such is October on the PacNW west slopes: 80s, storm, 70s, storms, low 60s, and.. storms through early March. 

Tomorrow will bring 1/2" of rain, and Tuesday will add over an inch. Maybe two. Similar to the previous set, the forecast Is for around 3" here over the next seven days.

Gold means 5" or more in 7 days

This is why our average each November and December is around eight inches. Three weeks of 2½" and a "dry" week of perhaps an inch. And 60° highs will only come with tropical air; solar energy isn't enough after mid-October.

WY 2023 Fini

And so water year 2023 comes to its close. This was the driest year of our hill-top record (at 43 1/3 inches), and by a decent amount: over 12" below normal. Only April and August came in above normal, and August only did so because the 31st was so wet! November is now our wettest month by its 30-year average, so its reaching 95% kept the deficit from turning worse.

September came in just like the rest of the year: right around 75% of normal. What's surprising is that the wet season And the dry season each came in at 75% also! Looking back I see that 2020 nearly did that (117% wet season, 114% dry season) - most years the difference was more than 25% favoring the wet months. Only in 2022 did the dry-season outperform the wet on a %normal basis. 

Funny are the stories that numbers tell..

the wet season commences

The end of September shows an 'interesting' weather pattern. Since that's two weeks away it's not likely to pan out - but models have fooled us before by being right!

This is the model output for nine days from now. It shows moisture transport at high altitudes, where atmospheric rivers are most clearly visible. Nothing for the next week.. then this. And another a few days after!

I'm leaving this graphic as a placeholder, so next week we can see what the near-term models have to say about it..

Might be the right time for a late-season dose of weed 'n feed?

Update 9/18 8pm

Each model run (updating left to right) is getting more energy lined up along the coast, and wow those arrows are getting long and dark! By Tuesday it pushes inland while dissipating - but some folks would really get hosed if this comes true. 

NWS offices in Seattle and Portland are now paying more attention, and some are suggesting 3" totals on some model variants. I'm showing the upper-air Water Vapor Integrated Transport data from u.Wash WRF model, which shows atmospheric-river activity better than many 'standard' models nearer the planet's surface (this also runs past seven days, unlike many other reference points).

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

9-21 Update: the strongest energy is exhausting itself before landfall now, so it's still coming - but not as excessive compared to earlier forecasts. 

Through Wednesday we could get 2-3" total rainfall. Another chunk of damp energy comes later in the week.. so reaching our September normal rainfall (just under 2½") looks like a pretty sure thing! *

Map at left shows total through Thursday PM.

---

What really happened: it seems the low-pressure offshore strengthened more than models had forecast, so the main energy streamed north offshore of us and slammed Vancouver Island. As of Wednesday at 9am, we've had about 1½" of rain - so half of the higher-end model estimates. Even the coast stayed near 2" .. a short distance west would have been in the thick of it! So not precisely correct, but a very good forecast a week beforehand.

* That "sure thing" September total is definitely optimistic now. We're over 1/2" short of the mark and the 30th looks dry.

normal, the hard way

The August normal for rain on the hill-top is 0.99 inches. We're making a 3-day run at it, and given our forecast for the 31st we'll come close but likely a pinch short. Before the 25th we stood at 0.02", so it's a mighty effort to close the gap. We can always reach 90° again in September, so summer has probably not vanished entirely - but it's a very nice respite.

As far as annual rainfall though.. normal is not going to happen. In order to be our driest ever Oct-Sep water year of our nine-ish years living up here, we just need to stay below 15 inches in September. Since our wettest Sep is about 5½", that's a pretty safe bet. Wetter months have happened though, so a few typhoon remnants at the right time can make the unlikely come true!

Update: we made it to normal, thanks to a surprising damp last day. No forecast had more than 1/2" but we reached 2/3", and ended August at 118% of normal. A few showers spilled into September, so we need only 14" and change to have a 'normal' year. Yeah, .. no.

Hot spell?

 

It's been in the forecast for several days now; the weather service has backed off a bit*, but WxU is holding strong. If NWS has its way their peak is Wed at 90° here.. which is 100° around Portland most likely. Definitely good weather for sleeping outside under the Perseid meteors!

Looks like we picked up a portable swamp cooler just in time.

* Thursday models are showing more heat again, so the WxU could be about even with NWS forecasts.

Update - NWS remains at mid-90s peak on Monday - but WxU has boosted things a bit!

2nd update. WxU wins again! 

NWS never gave us a 3-digit forecast.

Portland hit 108° on Monday..

nice

 This is a fine summer, indeed.

One can get things done in weather like this - assuming one isn't suffering from Covid, or an extended edition thereof. Sadly we're in that second position as of mid month. The sticker bushes continue to flourish while we labor with our minimal energy to keep the interior of the house clean. With better health, a few days should be found to hammer down the blackberries before they claim a second acre of our property.. of which we have but two!

Monday might even be a bit damp! Many plants would sigh audibly at such an event, I'd expect.

Are we there yet? Summer 2023

 Apparently not! One late spring storm is about to visit, with 1/2" of rain and Snow on the highest peaks. The last one usually coincides with Portland Rose Festival, but this one was ..delayed. Ah well, one less week without sprinkler deployment.

a longer hot spell?

 We'll see about this!

Update: actual result was not so hot. Two mid-80s and Sat-Sun each rounded to 90°. By Tuesday it was 78° again.

can it be.. spring?

 Keep a good thought!

We have already managed to reach our average rainfall (+melted snowfall) for April! That's the first above-average month in the last ten. And after a few randomly showery days early next week, the forecast stars have (apparently) aligned better than past optimistic forecasts in April. We last hit 65° on March 22nd, so actual 70s have remained in the rather distant future - until now? 

Update - we 'overperformed', to put it mildly!

And now, Wet!

Less than halfway through April and we are almost at 90% of normal!

That makes April the 2nd-wettest month of this (Oct-Sep) water year, just behind November's 95%.

We also had our farewell party for winter this morning, with 1/2" of snow at daybreak. No more can be seen in the 10-day forecast, and by late April it's almost thermodynamically impossible.

Curiously enough, we had over an inch last year at this time also. Before that April had not seen any measurable snow at our location/elevation, going back to mid-2014. Funny how patterns average out with such crazy extremes embedded..

update - we're just over 1/2" short of a normal April as of the 14th, with over an inch in the 7d forecast (which excludes that atm-river chart below). We have a strong candidate for our first above-average month since last June!

p.s. say it ain't so! Friday 4/21

dry, dry again

 March will end like every other month this water year: below average.

We have three more days to catch up, but the forecast shows an inch at most through the 31st. Since we're down 1.8 inches that won't bring us to normal - so that's six consecutive dry months. This is also the end of our wet season, as April-Sep contribute about a quarter of the annual total here.

30yr normal and 2022-23 %

It's definitely not time for a drought alert, but it's definitely not been a wet year. The La Niña season is over, and El Niño is ready to take its place; these ENSO phases really have little effect in the dry season though.

Whatever is next, this has been a surprisingly consistent period of below-normal rainfall!

As to snow, it was a decent 3rd-place showing with just under two feet estimated. About two inches above the eight-year normal. As usual, February was the Big Snow Month; that's been true five of the eight years of record.

---

p.s.  forecast for Sunday night shows snow level dropping to 800' overnight, so the recent pattern remains in place.
More storms driving down the coast from Juneau, and headwinds for the northbound birds to endure. If they stay inland a bit more, perhaps a tailwind east of the low can be found!

Final score for March: exactly 75% of normal. Average is precisely 6.00" and we received 4.75" - that's impressive (albeit spurious) accuracy.