WY 2023 Fini

And so water year 2023 comes to its close. This was the driest year of our hill-top record (at 43 1/3 inches), and by a decent amount: over 12" below normal. Only April and August came in above normal, and August only did so because the 31st was so wet! November is now our wettest month by its 30-year average, so its reaching 95% kept the deficit from turning worse.

September came in just like the rest of the year: right around 75% of normal. What's surprising is that the wet season And the dry season each came in at 75% also! Looking back I see that 2020 nearly did that (117% wet season, 114% dry season) - most years the difference was more than 25% favoring the wet months. Only in 2022 did the dry-season outperform the wet on a %normal basis. 

Funny are the stories that numbers tell..

Hasty workouts

The wet weather forecast got me in gear for a week's good work!

My 2023 health issues have been documented in this blog (see the health tag). The result has been plenty of downtime and deferred projects.

When the forecast turned damp for the last week of September I finally got busy, or at least gave my best effort with my low stamina.

First up: the woodpile!

I had plenty of brush from last winter, but also several thick lengths of wood from the previous winter. I hacked the logs into wood stove lengths, then split them with the long axe and stuffed them under cover while the weather was good. 

Evenings were spent relaxing on a heating pad.

Thankfully, a few more dry days were left to me, allowing for another speed task: knocking last year's moss growth off the roof.

Part two: roof prep 

The temperature was dropping fast and shade had taken over much of the yard and house, so these last two days began in fleece and long pants. I brought up a rough brush and the cordless leaf blower and got to work. The roof will need replacing next year so a gentle scrub wasn't important this time. I got about 2/3 finished the first day before again relaxing with the heating pad.

Day two found me blasting out one set of gutters with the leaf blower and a fresh battery before attacking the greener north facing roof. By late afternoon I was done up top, but plenty of moss tribbles were strewn across the north-side deck and south-side driveway. I was able to clean up the deck before dark, leaving a few dry hours on day three to blow the driveway from massive clutter to two thick clumps of green. 

One more task remained for the last dry day, so I opened the large lawn-nourishment bag I had hoped to use six months ago and spread it across as much lawn as it could reasonably cover. It had clumped and congealed a bit but not too badly.

With firewood and roof ready for the wet season, I considered things to be as good as could be managed. The storms were less soaking than was expected, so I soaked the lawn where trees had blocked the rainfall.

Now to await the coming dry spell late this week, to see how the grass and weeds respond to water and chemistry!

the wet season commences

The end of September shows an 'interesting' weather pattern. Since that's two weeks away it's not likely to pan out - but models have fooled us before by being right!

This is the model output for nine days from now. It shows moisture transport at high altitudes, where atmospheric rivers are most clearly visible. Nothing for the next week.. then this. And another a few days after!

I'm leaving this graphic as a placeholder, so next week we can see what the near-term models have to say about it..

Might be the right time for a late-season dose of weed 'n feed?

Update 9/18 8pm

Each model run (updating left to right) is getting more energy lined up along the coast, and wow those arrows are getting long and dark! By Tuesday it pushes inland while dissipating - but some folks would really get hosed if this comes true. 

NWS offices in Seattle and Portland are now paying more attention, and some are suggesting 3" totals on some model variants. I'm showing the upper-air Water Vapor Integrated Transport data from u.Wash WRF model, which shows atmospheric-river activity better than many 'standard' models nearer the planet's surface (this also runs past seven days, unlike many other reference points).

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9-21 Update: the strongest energy is exhausting itself before landfall now, so it's still coming - but not as excessive compared to earlier forecasts. 

Through Wednesday we could get 2-3" total rainfall. Another chunk of damp energy comes later in the week.. so reaching our September normal rainfall (just under 2½") looks like a pretty sure thing! *

Map at left shows total through Thursday PM.

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What really happened: it seems the low-pressure offshore strengthened more than models had forecast, so the main energy streamed north offshore of us and slammed Vancouver Island. As of Wednesday at 9am, we've had about 1½" of rain - so half of the higher-end model estimates. Even the coast stayed near 2" .. a short distance west would have been in the thick of it! So not precisely correct, but a very good forecast a week beforehand.

* That "sure thing" September total is definitely optimistic now. We're over 1/2" short of the mark and the 30th looks dry.

μ43 commentary, part 2

 I've expended a lot of energy on research for cameras, and it generally pays off. In a curious way it has failed me several times recently, to my shock and frustration.

Put simply:

Why can't I like newer Lumix bodies??

I loved the G1, so small and with many nice options (unique ones in fact, as it was the first mirrorless body!). The GH1 was also nice, though I had to part with it quickly in one of many budget crunches since 2010.

The GX1, GX7 and EM1 supplanted the early bodies for quite a while, as did the eP5. Each brought new features that I really liked.

My next steps forward just didn't work out:

•  The G7 had all the specs I sought (wx seals and iStab were covered by my Pentax gear) and it fit my hand so well. But by now I was happier with tip screens so flipping was less fun, and my brain didn't mesh with the 4k features despite my coveting them.
• I then reverted to the GX series with the GX8 and its wx seals and IS.. but the flip screen and external Exposure Comp dial irritated me.  Close but not quite, compared to the eM1 original.

Oh My: had I gone over to the OM side and its curiously complex menus? Both systems brought cool new features, but on paper Lumix made more sense. 

So I tried a few more times!

• When the G85 came along with better stabilization and wx seals it just had to be the one!! Nope. The GX85 brought a new shutter and in-body charging.. but I reverted to my preferred GX7 and its oddball USB connection. Of course is not the same oddball USB connection as Olympus.. that would be too easy. 
• Last and not least: the G9. So many agree it's a bit large but Perfect for their needs.  Nearly every owner said "try it first, it's not for everyone". They are correct: this camera fit me worse than all the others. The first time i turned it on I put my finger on the shutter, moved forward to change the front dial - and powered the camera off. Front dial is Behind the shutter, Canon style. Having used everything except Canon this was contrary to all my previous experience and would once learned every other camera would feel wrong. I couldn't bear it.

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And so I continue in the μ43 system with the best I can afford, the eM5.iii (and its 'normal' micro-USB connector!) and have reluctantly accepted that Lumix G bodies don't suit me. 

Though I shall never know why !!