We got off to a wet start, but since the 12th we've had just 0.02" - and that had to be fog condensation as we had no storms. We did finally reach freezing though! December's low was 31.1° which barely qualifies as freezing, but 27.6 this month is decently chilly.
We're at 2/3 of average precipitation for the month, and that's about where we shall end; the storm for this weekend has fizzled out and we might see another after the 28th. That breaks the string of above average months at three, but those three are the wet ones so we're in decent shape. As to snowpack, it's pretty bad - the volcanoes are purely white, but roads through the mountains are frosty not snow-packed.
Update! The last storm of the month brought January to ~80 percent of normal. Better than expected, but it was another warm storm that did nothing good to snowpack.
We'll see what February will bring!
This month has edged out October 2017 as our wettest month here on the hill-top. Since Octobers are drier than Decembers around here, that month still wins on percent of normal, so it keeps its trophy for that record!
We still have over a week to go, but that %-normal record looks safe. The forecast for now through New Years Day looks relatively dry. The previous two Decembers came in around 10 inches, just above average.
After a foot of rain this past week from two skyrivers, another awaits!
Monday will be wet in any case. Our forecast is for 4" by Thursday. Ug. If the moisture sags south, we get to be on the cool side, meaning the snow that departed last week will start to rebuild. That would be good news!
We're a few hundred feet higher so it's quite possible our total will be higher! As of 11:30 on the 5th we have 1.61" for 4+5 December. That's nearly an inch above these forecasts.
Casual football will be messy around here!
11:30am = 0.01" - - - - 6:30pm = 0.90"
Sure doesn't look like an August forecast.
And this isn't a forecast five days out; this is tomorrow.
Our average August has 0.99" in the whole month - and we had .40" a week ago! This chart adds an additional 1.39 inches, and another .15 or so arrives after 6am Saturday. So we might double the typical August - assuming it does not rain in the second half of the month.
It's a good month to double the average as a) this is the 2nd driest month of the year and b) July, the driest on average, had Zero rain this year. So our summer average should square up nicely with this nice surprise drenching. Hopefully it will do a number on several fires in the region, especially on Vancouver Island and the Olympic peninsula. East of the mountains should get some of this also, but it always comes with wind that can whip up the fires as much as dampening them. Fingers crossed!
Update - the storm has carried itself further north so far, with just .15" during the first part of Saturday. The leading edge of the cold front is finally reaching us at 3PM, so the relatively dry spell is over now!
Update 2: 1.64" total for Thu-Sat, and 2.04" for August. The 30yr normal is 0.99".
Update #2: 2.04" total for the month. The last four years average to 1.0".. therefore normal!
August 2022, and now July 2025. The only two months at our hill-top home with zero recorded precipitation. Since the average in those two months is less than an inch, it doesn't have much impact on the annual values. Clearly it's still pretty rare! My records go back to 2014, so twice in 11 years is rare.
Update - oops, the forecast dried out. For one hour on the morning of 8/7 we have a 30% chance of .. something drizzly, I presume. Here's the next 7 days of moisture as of July 30th.
Nice.
Update - the Wx Underground forecast graphic is for valley-floor locations, which is always ~4 degrees off from our hill-top site. It's generally warmer in summer with thicker atmosphere, but colder in winter thanks to cold-air seepage. We reached 80° Friday up here, and NWS temperatures near 750' show mid-upper 60s next week.
Nearly as nice!
Well, it's almost February - our historically snowiest month on the hill-top. January has mostly been dry, cold and clear, with about 1/3 of normal precipitation. The pattern change is right on schedule!
I have surgery scheduled for mid-March based on our February snow history; looks like it was a good idea.
It's still about a week away, so no doubt the numbers will dance a while before the event unfolds.
Update: a respectable forecast! We had 2" in the 2nd, melted half of it then added two more! Quiet on the 4th but more showers on the 5th. No big dump (which was not predicted) and it was gone below 400'.
Our hill-top forecast for Christmas looks mighty wet. It's been this way for a few days now, so it's getting harder to ignore. Christmas Eve isn't too bad, but if we head north to the in-laws neighborhood we have no decent day for the return trip. Rivers would be high and possibly dropping debris into the Puget Sound, possibly affecting ferry service. That would force us into Seattle traffic.. seldom pleasant even in a light rain, and forecasts there are 1/2 inch each day. Not ideal.
Cliff Mass blog is on it as well:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/12/an-intense-christmas-atmospheric-river.html
update - storms were not as extreme for the most part, and my Saturday drive was into a cloud bank but not miserable. From 12/24-31 we received a total of 4.6" on the hill-top, which gave us a 125% of normal for December. The wettest days were Thu and Fri with just over an inch each.
The storms came in hard and fast in late Oct, pushing us from 41% to 95% of normal in the last week. We're taking a break for a few days, but the days soon after will compensate! Our 7-day total looks to be about four inches.
Wow.
Temperatures were not hugely out of alignment, and August in particular was not a hot month. We managed some 90° days in July but not a single one in August! We had a few periods of decently gusty winds but thankfully a quiet year for smoke; what we had remained high overhead. The 'chance of thunderstorms' for our location was a year-long bust; I can't recall more than one thunder-clap the entire year, while others sat underneath several exciting events.
This past week I saw how desiccated Mt. Hood has become in late summer. My views were not through clearest skies, but I spent most of my life looking at that mountain in all seasons - and the glaciers have definitely become less visible. The Reid glacier faces Portland directly, and I recall hiking above Ramona Falls to high meadows directly in front of the headwall; it would be troubling to be that close and see the retreat from my 1980 photos.
As to 2025.. the El Niño pattern has fallen into the zone of indifference between it and La Niña. That's often the wetter and more volatile signal around here. Time will reveal how the patterns play out.
Well north of the brown smoke shown here, the township of Jasper AB was substantially consumed by a fire yesterday. Over 25000 people were safely evacuated from town and park, but emergency crews had no chance against the swirling winds and walls of flame.
Tough times.
Typically around here we begin summer on July 5-7th, whenever the last Pacific storm visits with enough strength to keep us in the upper 60s. We are starting a day early this year, and we're trying for 100° this weekend. Just 80 today, it appears - but we may not see another day in the 80s until a week from now. Thankfully the coastal cities and beaches only suffer two days of heat before the onshore flow is sufficient to bring back the 70s - so that's a daytime destination we are considering strongly!
Wrap up: well, that was unpleasant. Portland reached 100° and Salem was a few degrees warmer. We didn't visit the beach, but A/C and mist on the deck were fully employed.
Wed max was 16° cooler after a 10° drop in the morning. A decent west wind broke another 15-foot branch from a tree in our yard.. that's about the fourth of similar size to come down this year!
Here it comes again: the early-June shower pattern for areas around Portland.
-- coming soon!
We've had less than 30% of our April normal, and a week to make up for it. A totally dry week ends today: tomorrow should have a bit after dark, but Thursday will bring close to an inch. Wow! We'd need 3½" to catch up, and that is not expected to happen.
This hurts more because I now have my tool prepared for halting the blackberry invasion. I looked up how to swap the brush blade onto our string trimmer and how to actually start the beast. Tomorrow is a travel / medical day, so we'll be back with a few short hours to work before darkness arrives and the rain begins. Friday should be less wet but showers continue for several more days.
Guess I just need to embrace the dampness and get cracking! :^)
One piece of good news though: the riding mower is functioning again! I replaced a few parts, zip-tied the front end into a reasonable approximation of its original orientation, and finally found the culprit: the fuse wiring had come loose from part of its harness and was dangling uselessly. Now to purge the ancient gas and oil from it, and forget the last two summers were such a challenge..
With five days to go, February was 39% of normal for precipitation. That's asking a lot of five days.
And then it began to rain.
As of this morning we're at 60% - and forecasts add about 2½" more (thanks to having a 29th day this year!). If this pans out we'll have (a) two really wet days, and (b) 105% of normal!
Let's find out..
Update, 28 Feb. Now just 0.8" short of average (87%) -- and the cold front is making its appearance at the coast! We never used to have such detail, but the somewhat recent addition of a radar near Aberdeen really improved the up-wind view.
