welcome to March!

 

The cold, somewhat messy March lion has arrived!

After a five-day rally to make February into an above-average month (105%), March cones in chilly. The 7-day forecast is for about 1½" of wet snowflakes; we have a solid trace on our deck and in our grass as I type, and a snowy mix is falling.

It seems that our groundhog lied. Break out the pitchforks and torches!!

Update. The early forecast was for perhaps 2" total snowfall, at best an inch each night and gone the next afternoon. Reality was more exuberant: over 9" on the ground at maximum, which today (3/8) is still three inches on deck and driveway! 

Exuberant indeed. 

late-month rally

 With five days to go, February was 39% of normal for precipitation. That's asking a lot of five days.

And then it began to rain.

As of this morning we're at 60% - and forecasts add about 2½" more (thanks to having a 29th  day this year!). If this pans out we'll have (a) two really wet days, and (b) 105% of normal!

Let's find out..

Update, 28 Feb. Now just 0.8" short of average (87%) -- and the cold front is making its appearance at the coast! We never used to have such detail, but the somewhat recent addition of a radar near Aberdeen really improved the up-wind view.

The next seven days are quite damp, showing that the first few days of March 

will come in like a lion - and not just for us!!

California takes a turn

February has been less damp than recent months, as the rapidly weakening el Niño sends moisture south of us for a while. We're around 30% of normal halfway through the month.

Our coming week has perhaps an inch of rain, but several recent forecasts have been too enthusiastic about amounts. We even flirted with a snow forecast this week, but in the end the cold vs. moist boundary ended up closer to Olympia. Oh look; our forecast now has a 900-foot snow level tonight..

Next fall looks like we're back to La Niña - but many climate folks are now wondering if enough global change has been wrought to break our conditioned expectations. It's always been clear how things settle out in Niña and Niño years.. but last year's California weather was not typical at all. Lake Manly (aka Badwater / Death Valley) formed after Hurricane Hilary and it's been replenished by recent storms; Tulare Lake reformed and hasn't vanished either. Perhaps we need to watch a few more cycles before throwing out all our experience; we'll find out!

kit

Looking ahead not back

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Update 3-5: shifting from 12-35 to 14-140A, with wx seals and nice range. This removes three lenses from my pile: 12-35, 45-150 and my damaged 14-140 with its chipped front element, which I cannot use with full confidence. 

I'm also swapping a G100 Lumix in place of the gf7; its USB charging, two dials and viewfinder are solid positives over the GF7. No ibIS, but better 20Mpx sensor, excellent viewfinder, and audio inputs - and oh ya, 4k too.

µ43 primes: 10-17-23-30macro-45mm. The 17 and 45 are Oly f/1.8, and so the Zonlai 50 is now expendable. The 10 and 23 are manual focus, but AF rules otherwise.

Zooms: 14-140 plus 35-100. That brings me a range of 28-280mm/e with weather seals and 28-200 with decent speed (the 14-140 is a pinch faster than 12-60 at 35mm). That's plenty good enough for me. 

The elder 4thirds ZD 70-300 is available for longer reach. Its bulk won't make it a take-everywhere option but that's OK.

bodies: eM1 mk.II and G100 are versatile in different ways; hopefully they will not interfere with each other. 

Back to normal

 Version 1: temperature is now above 45° and snow is down to tiny patches. A half inch of rain has fallen today so it may all be gone by sunrise. The melt plus rain was nearly 2"!

Version 2: with a week to go, January should end up at least an inch above normal (OK, 2½" above as of the 27th!). That means our water deficit since October will be a surplus.. for a little while, at least. 

a first glance at winter

Our moisture has come from the south so far this rainy season, so ski resorts and winter-focused events have not fared well. Many storms near California will do that, and el Niño often leaves its mark to our south, pushing warmer air our way to limit snowpack. It does not make us immune to winter weather though!

Today's Wx-Underground forecasts have turned toward snow about a week from now, which is surprising. Many models have made this shift, however; shown here is the well-regarded European model's view on Friday morning 1/12. This is pretty much the classic pattern for white weather down low, with cold air just onshore and marine moisture willing to be pulled in just to its south!

This could change in six hours with the next model runs, and in the course of a week's modeling the timing and location will likely revise a few more times. Still, it's notable. 

We'll be watching..

7Jan update: the forecast has twisted several times as to depth of cold air and accumulation, but the 12-13th remains white at our 750' elevation. Values have varied from 3½ to 12 inches from run to run!

7-16 recap?

Curiously enough, winter weather began abruptly on Tuesday the 9th, with over 6" on the ground on Tuesday morning. It was a strong suspicion but nothing more on Monday night as we drove back from Anacortes in downpours.

That settled down to 4" by Friday 1/12, when we topped off the crunchy old snow with 4" of fresh true powder. The arctic front dropped us to 16° at night through Monday the 15th. Today the cold air was overrun by a front coming from the SW; only a pinch of fz/rain has fallen so far, and the forecast has us above freezing by sunrise. It will take a day or two for the snow to vamish, but the wild times will return to normal in 36 hours or so.

7-17 - It was a good try, but it took until 10am to reach freezing, and 2pm to reach 35. 

Time to start shoveling the driveway!

GP MMXXIV: is it over?

The purge has ended, and kit 2024 has arrived: the last lens* arrived on the 2nd of January. The kit is very different from my December posting (at right)! A couple of shoot-outs will help me decide which lenses will stay and if any more will depart. 

Some things are clear though:

• The gold column is gone. I still own a few lenses, but they are bodiless and therefore useless to me.
• The green column is here physically but is no longer a factor in my decisions. One or two lenses may remain when it's over, but it wont be a factor in my planning. Assuming I can afford any more plans!
• I see eleven items in the μ43 column from early December. Six have changed (including both listed bodies), and an extra lens added. A few of those six may remain after the Purge - but definitely not many!

How it all came about

1. A new top body, the eM1.ii in Ex+ came first, funded by the Sony gear's departure. This would put the eM1 into the second spot and allow the A01 to find a new home. While I'm not a fan of flip screens, the many additional updates to the ii were quite persuasive.
2. After researching my ultrawide /astro options, I chose the TTArtisan 7.5/2 fisheye. It's a bit of a beast, especially compared to the 10 fisheye - but being three stops brighter was a worthwhile change to make. That made the 10/5.6 rather expendable despite its compactness, but I left that question unsettled for a bit.. like perhaps two paragraphs?
3. I then decided to grab a nicely-priced copy of the Lumix 20/1.7 to replace the TTArt 23/1.4 that I'd been using. A pinch less light and 'slow' AF, but enough benefits to take the spot and leave more space for the 30mm macro to get more use. I had considered if the Oly 17/1.8 would not have served a bit better.. but $50 less for very similar IQ and bulk helped. It may be that 10-17-23-30 is a better series than 10-20-30.. but for now I'm good.
4. OOPS! I found a Laowa 10/2 in good condition at a reseller, meaning it was affordable - but would be cheaper still if I were to let the eM1 v.1 depart. The Laowa is an excellent lens to have on hand for aurora seeking. It does force Shootout #1 between the TTArt and Laowa.. and the Br*10 for that matter: two fisheyes is one too many, as is two 10mm. It does reopen the slot for 2nd body.. for a little while. Speaking of shootouts, 
5. Whoa. A bargain Lumix 12-35/2.8 v.1 will battle the slower Lumix 12-60 as the 35-100/2.8's teammate. Sure I'd prefer the v.2 to match the 35-100, but this was in Bgn condition, therefore far less expensive than I expected for any copy of this lens! On an Oly body the Dual:IS boost of v.2 is irrelevant. Shootout #2 will be interesting as I yet again contemplate speed vs range!
6. Either way, the 14/2.5 and 23/1.4 have no real place if the 12-35 prevails. We'll see how results play out soon!
7. Um/Ah - then a GF7 appeared on eBay with little use and a reasonable price. Far more useful in my bag than the A01, it's a gx7 internally but in a simpler wrapper and with fewer bonus features. Great imaging on the inside though!

 So here's the µ43 update, with new items in red and gold. 

The only tempting change now is to swap out my Zonlai 50/1.4 with a slightly slower 42.5/45mm AF prime. That would save some weight, as the Zonlai is a dense little beast (listed at just under 200g, but the Oly45/1.8 is 115g). No hurry on this however. 

And as long as the Zonlai stays the TTArtisan 23 might also, since it's 2 stops faster than the 12-35; that could make a difference, now and then. Its resale value wouldn't be high anyway, and its focal length matches the sensor diagonal so it's the µ43 equivalent of a Fast Fifty!

I have assembled a little kit in my smallest camera bag. GF7 with Brightin* 10mm fe, 20/1.7, 30/3.5 and the Lumix 45-150. The 14mm and 12-60 are probably expendable now.. time and shootouts will tell.

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Shootout notes

12-35 v 12-60 28Dec 23

Both lenses show limited distortion when panning at 12mm, the 12-35 perhaps a bit less. Close focus is very close on both but the 12-60 wins with its longer range .. but that's at f/5.6. The 12-60 is f/5 at 32mm, so 1+2/3 stop slower than the 12-35. Focus depth does not really interfere at such distances but further off items will definitely blur out better with about two stops more light incoming. Weight of the 12-35 is a bit more, but it isn't apparent since the lens is so compact.

Result: this comes down to personal preference. Given the damaged 14-140 in hand (with minimal resale value) and >35mm coverage at f/2.8, the 12-35 makes good sense. While the 12-60 could hang out as the GF7 primary lens, the 12-35 is smaller even if heavier; a Lumix 14-42ii or 14-42X would do the job as well or better.

10/5.6fe vs 7.5/2fe v 10/2 still awaiting Laowa as of 30Dec*

All are now available, but the test hasn't happened yet - but one of these days.. !!

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* The Laowa 10/2 decided to spend an extra day exploring Shelby MT rather than reaching me on the 29th along with the 12-35/2.8.