on to December..

We still have a week to go in November.. but the forecast now shows 'interesting' weather coming!

Too soon to determine anything with certainty. Forecast ensembles show a ±8 degree temperature range at 5000' elevation - so definitely snow, or not snow, or perhaps a mix with rain - are all in play! At least they mostly agree it will be damp enough to worry about whether that dampness is solid or liquid..

November will get perhaps another ½-1" of rain first, so we could reach 80% of normal.  So we'll head into December about four inches down in the bucket from Oct+Nov. 

The leaves are nearly down now, so at least branches will be less at risk if snow does fall. And the blackberry brambles will wait for 2023 for their comeuppance.

Start/Stop.. Restart?

 November is curious this year. One week wet then two weeks dry, and rain returning the 21st or 22nd. Patterns in the chaos, or chaos in the Pattern? 

I've seen no mushrooms this year. Our dry season lasted longer, and came back after those seven damp days. A week of frosty mornings has sent a signal to the spores: beware! 

Will the next wet spell come in time for emergence? We'll see ..

a major performance?

 After recent model underperformance, we're confronted with this: Tue and Wed forecasts for the weekend!

Oh my.

So if models continue with their wet bias, we should still expect two inches or more for the weekend. This shows about 4½" - and the trend is rising. Atmospheric River II looks much more formidable than its ancedent, and it could be true. 

Here's the midday Thursday NWS story - higher again. Trends are matching up, and model data suggests this is close to a one in fifty year event! As of Thursday morning, the atmo-river values are at the boundary between "strong" and "Extreme". And we're close to the central location for the stalled front to loiter, and with a pinch of elevation. Triple-7s on the tropical slot machine!

Here's the Thu midday forecast, with tonight now higher than before!

Also worth noting is the wind. South winds don't reach us here thanks to our 800-foot 'summit' on our south property line -- but a west wind could definitely do some damage to our well-leafed trees and evergreens. Gusts here have been bumped up to 41mph on the most recent meteogram, and the gusty period is greatly extended from three short peaks to a nearly continuous event!

As for that snow next week.. well, that's another story. Considering we were in the 70s two weeks ago, it's probably the most abrupt switch I'd have experienced if it pans out. Of course, in the Midwest/Northeast US it's known as a typical autumn week, flipping 70 to 35 and suntan lotion to mittens. I haven't spent time there so I wouldn't know - but "there's been talk"..

Final Tally: just over six inches for the first week of November, including 4.58" on the fourth. That's a new #4 on my lifetime-wettest list. 

And the snowfall didn't happen. Dry with frosty mornings instead.