making sense of chaos

It's what we do as humans - extrapolate from data in hand. Today it's being done from tiny amounts of data, which leads to very risky interpretations.

We always seek what's coming next, whether to make our fortunes or prepare for the worst. Clearly we didn't do that latter for a viral onslaught; today will probably put us at a million confirmed cases of covid-19 infection, and 50000 deaths. Big cities are easy to find by the red circles of infection, but it really has spread to nearly every corner of the globe. Greenland now has a few cases! People are rightly worried - but they seek answers that time has not provided yet. Pregnant women want to know how the virus will interact with their fetus; we all want to know, but sadly the test cases are still enwombed.

Another very common to forecast future data is a simple one: to know what to wear tomorrow. It's now April so the flowers are coming out, and cold-weather gear can be consigned to a deep closet.

Or not.

None of this is forecast to accumulate more than 1/2 inch. But the fact that it's early April makes it a small sample-size for predicting such things! Models for weather are far more developed than for a previously-unknown virus, however.

As always, we'll wait and see how it plays out.

The wait for snow is over; it did not happen. Perhaps a few flakes at 2AM but nothing ever appeared on ground or deck. As to the virus.. now over 1 million cases worldwide, and climbing steadily.

grinding to a halt

So many changes have come with the virus surging around the world. Flights, drives, jaunts and in many cases, even jogs are shut down or strongly discouraged. Our county still has just three positive cases and all are resting at home - so it's fairly quiet around here.

On the other hand, our workplace has many people out 'sick' meaning they are either ill with something else or in self-preservation quarantine due to previous conditions that the virus will greatly complicate. My work is among the few considered 'essential' so I'm getting my part-time check, unlike many in the USA and elsewhere. Congress is about to finalize a massive injection of cash into the system in several forms, and we're also partway into a home refinance that was being looked at before the viral growth curve began its exponential upswing.

If all goes as planned - a phrase that is getting little use right now! - we will emerge from this better than many others. My elder siblings and my mom are at a far greater level of risk than myself, but this virus is pervasive and not as discriminating as casual onlookers (mostly younger) have been led to believe. Less than 2% who catch it are dying, but they are not all above 85 or confronted with contributing health issues!

Nearly all of us will endure beyond this first phase, and any others that may await. The world will be rather different on the other end of it, I'm thinking.

True March madness

The covid-19 turmoil has led to orders to minimize large groups - and sports organizations have responded. NBA, MLS, MLB and NCAA games are either delayed into April or scrubbed completely. No March Madness basketball.. that's fine by me but a huge blow to casual gamblers who claim they don't actually gamble. Even the PGA is acting by removing spectators after today's first round of the Players championship! And my brother and grandson lost the Shamrock Run spring ritual that was to happen next week.

Add these to cancellations of concerts, Broadway plays, Presidential election rallies and other large assemblies (hmm, southern megachurches?) and it's time to self-quarantine and watch the effects on society.. and maybe some golf.

It will be a strange March. And probably April, and ..no one knows how much longer..

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Update - golf tournament stopped after one round, Masters 'postponed'. No watching golf either!

CoVid∙19

my first CoVid-19 post.
Definitely not my last..

At left is what amounts to a 2020 snapshot of the stock market and worldwide CoVid-19 virus cases. They are not in perfect alignment, but the point is made. Stock prices wavered a bit in late January as China fought the disease on its own; it has now taken hold firmly in Korea and Italy, and about half the countries of the world now do battle with it. The US government has been making many announcements & pronouncements to keep stocks from crashing all at once, but then investors see the true content of those messages - and the drop resumes.

The USA infection chart is below. Ground Zero was an assisted-living home near Seattle, a two-hour drive from home. New hot spots appeared in New York, where one contagious person seems to have caught about forty others before being detected. Scientists now say that most of the carriers show no symptoms when they carry it to others, so it's insidious and hard to trap.

Added to the problem is the slow time to make tests available, thereby assuring US citizens that the spread is far wider than the capture rate. I had two co-workers go home last night; who knows what they have? Our county has declared an emergency despite no positive test results, toilet paper and other staples cannot be found at many stores, and no inoculations will be available for about a year in the best of cases. Unless the chart below is flattened by reducing contact all existing medical services will be overburdened by the simultaneous need for many to receive treatment. It's a frightening time, especially for those of us with elders in assisted living.. and those of use who have read "The Stand", "The Plague" or "The White Plague".
Yes, I've read all three.

Chaos rules.

3/13: Tom Hanks and his spouse, the Canadian prime minister's wife, England's health minister. It's like Fran Goldsmith's list of things to tell her unborn child in 'the Stand'. These people are not gone however, and really about a 10% chance of it. Foretelling on the future is as dangerous here as it is on Roshar.

cheap thrills

Something like a polar front is dropping in this evening!

The grey dashed lines show ground-level winds. From Chehalis south showers are coming in WNW, but around Seattle it's NNE! The cold front arrived last night, so a basic reinforcement of cool air is on its way. Fun to watch the showers change direction like this.. well if you're like me it is. And we're over 5" of rainfall after 7½ days of February!

a classic cold front

February arrived with another 9/10" of rain, via the classic cold front!

Top lines are temperature/dewpoint. Just over 50° until just after 8AM, then a quick drop to mid-40s. The two lines have begun to diverge, showing some drying to the air-mass - until now we've been in the clouds!

Second line shows calm air before 8AM becoming gusty in a hurry. All winds are under 10mph but are from NW and some NE breezes, as shown by the point-plot in third place. The south wind has a hard time reaching the gage due to the large hill just to our south..

Last and not least is the barometric pressure. The pressure began to rise just before 8AM, pretty much in line with the other charts. Wind shift to more northerly + pressure rise + temperature drop = welcome to the new, cooler air-mass!

Yes, folks east of the Rockies and elsewhere will chuckle at our wimpy temperature drop and winds. When your source pool changes from the mid-latitude ocean to the polar ocean, changes are still based on maritime air. The midwest can pull from the Gulf of Mexico or the Yukon, and that can make for a massive drop! Nonetheless, for folks 'round here the shift shown here is as wild as we can really manage.

am I a sports 'fan'?

I really like sports. In several I like most to participate, but to some degree I enjoy many others as well. I'd much rather play golf than watch it, but to ignore it completely when I cannot play is difficult. I really like badminton and volleyball, yet I don't keep up with others who do those things. I visit sports sites frequently and read about soccer/football, US football, Aussie Rules football, and some baseball. I haven't managed to understand cricket yet, much less follow it - but I think about it now and then; maybe some day?

And yet - a fan? A sports fanatic? That's not me.

I enjoy the Trail Blazers as our local team and want them to do well; however basketball is just above badminton as a sport to watch. The Timbers are interesting yet I haven't seen one of their matches in decades, certainly not the MLS team (NASL? Yes!). College sports generally and football/basketball in particular do nothing for me; I may listen to a bowl/playoff game if a local team is playing, but probably not.

But now and then I should talk about sports when they merit it. Today is one of those days!

This past week has been almost unprecedented in Damien Lillard's excellent career. It coincided with the shock of Kobe Bryant's helicopter crash that took all aboard to a better place - and after postponing a game to compose themselves the Lakers played the Trail Blazers. This season Portland has been uneven with a mess of injuries but had added several good pieces, which (to the surprise of many) included Carmelo Anthony.

ESPN - the first Lakers game after Kobe's death:  In his past five games, Lillard is averaging 48.4 points, 9.8 assists and 8.2 rebounds.

ESPN - eleven things I like #7: Lillard is a bad, bad man. I would have included his stats from Portland's past six games, but my laptop caught fire when I looked them up.
Lillard has some Kobe in him, doesn't he?

OK that's all I have for now in the 'sports' column. Thanks for listening!