never before, never again?

8AM sunday, lowest central pressure

 No storm has been recorded on this side of the pacific ocean with such low pressure. Whether it's a complete one-off event, time will tell - but we already had one of those this year, with the July superheatwave! How many firsts can we manage?

Models are still struggling with such power to determine where the flow will take it. Generally they swerve more to the north before reaching the coast as they fill and weaken, but ensemble variations are high with this much energy seeking a path. Models are doing amazing work already, forecasting both this storm and the previous 953hPa low earlier in the week. Hard to complain, but residents would like as much warning before their trees and roofs take flight. 

estimated position Monday morning

Yikes!

Not actually as bad as that, since it's heading a bit north and weakening - but still a potent threat especially with this being one of many possible results.

Leaves are leaping from our maples under the hard rain and blustery weather from the passing fronts. Our hill protects us from S/SE storm winds if they do occur - at least until the trees atop the hill wear out from the pounding..

And by the way - forecast for the upcoming seven days is still at 3" or more, so the damp days we've just passed are being replaced by equally-damp ones at the end of October. No surprise, and it means that once again our monthly rainfall will be above average. Every single October of our seven years on the hill-top has been above average (though we'll admit one was by 0.01") so the streak continues. We're still almost two inches short as of the 23rd - but feeling pretty confident it will happen.

Update 10/27 - we reached 100% of the 30-yr average this evening!