Underperformance

The wet season came right on time, as all the extended models had converged on 10/21. As to details though.. our wet spell has been rather dry. 

The first week was going to bring four inches in a hurry, but it was almost two instead. Last night's storm stalled north of us and wore out before moving, so 0.7" was less than 0.2" - and so it has gone. Forecasts for the next 7 days keep looking like this one, but note how we are near the south edge of the Big Numbers.

One of these systems will eventually stall over us, but October will probably end before that happens - so it will end dry but with a wet setup for November.

In the meantime, we're about to get 1½ inches to close out the month. If we get anything close to that, we'll at least be halfway to normal for October. Yet again: we'll see.