late-month rally

 With five days to go, February was 39% of normal for precipitation. That's asking a lot of five days.

And then it began to rain.

As of this morning we're at 60% - and forecasts add about 2½" more (thanks to having a 29th  day this year!). If this pans out we'll have (a) two really wet days, and (b) 105% of normal!

Let's find out..

Update, 28 Feb. Now just 0.8" short of average (87%) -- and the cold front is making its appearance at the coast! We never used to have such detail, but the somewhat recent addition of a radar near Aberdeen really improved the up-wind view.

The next seven days are quite damp, showing that the first few days of March 

will come in like a lion - and not just for us!!

California takes a turn

February has been less damp than recent months, as the rapidly weakening el Niño sends moisture south of us for a while. We're around 30% of normal halfway through the month.

Our coming week has perhaps an inch of rain, but several recent forecasts have been too enthusiastic about amounts. We even flirted with a snow forecast this week, but in the end the cold vs. moist boundary ended up closer to Olympia. Oh look; our forecast now has a 900-foot snow level tonight..

Next fall looks like we're back to La Niña - but many climate folks are now wondering if enough global change has been wrought to break our conditioned expectations. It's always been clear how things settle out in Niña and Niño years.. but last year's California weather was not typical at all. Lake Manly (aka Badwater / Death Valley) formed after Hurricane Hilary and it's been replenished by recent storms; Tulare Lake reformed and hasn't vanished either. Perhaps we need to watch a few more cycles before throwing out all our experience; we'll find out!