Start/Stop.. Restart?

 November is curious this year. One week wet then two weeks dry, and rain returning the 21st or 22nd. Patterns in the chaos, or chaos in the Pattern? 

I've seen no mushrooms this year. Our dry season lasted longer, and came back after those seven damp days. A week of frosty mornings has sent a signal to the spores: beware! 

Will the next wet spell come in time for emergence? We'll see ..

a major performance?

 After recent model underperformance, we're confronted with this: Tue and Wed forecasts for the weekend!

Oh my.

So if models continue with their wet bias, we should still expect two inches or more for the weekend. This shows about 4½" - and the trend is rising. Atmospheric River II looks much more formidable than its ancedent, and it could be true. 

Here's the midday Thursday NWS story - higher again. Trends are matching up, and model data suggests this is close to a one in fifty year event! As of Thursday morning, the atmo-river values are at the boundary between "strong" and "Extreme". And we're close to the central location for the stalled front to loiter, and with a pinch of elevation. Triple-7s on the tropical slot machine!

Here's the Thu midday forecast, with tonight now higher than before!

Also worth noting is the wind. South winds don't reach us here thanks to our 800-foot 'summit' on our south property line -- but a west wind could definitely do some damage to our well-leafed trees and evergreens. Gusts here have been bumped up to 41mph on the most recent meteogram, and the gusty period is greatly extended from three short peaks to a nearly continuous event!

As for that snow next week.. well, that's another story. Considering we were in the 70s two weeks ago, it's probably the most abrupt switch I'd have experienced if it pans out. Of course, in the Midwest/Northeast US it's known as a typical autumn week, flipping 70 to 35 and suntan lotion to mittens. I haven't spent time there so I wouldn't know - but "there's been talk"..

Final Tally: just over six inches for the first week of November, including 4.58" on the fourth. That's a new #4 on my lifetime-wettest list. 

And the snowfall didn't happen. Dry with frosty mornings instead. 

Underperformance

The wet season came right on time, as all the extended models had converged on 10/21. As to details though.. our wet spell has been rather dry. 

The first week was going to bring four inches in a hurry, but it was almost two instead. Last night's storm stalled north of us and wore out before moving, so 0.7" was less than 0.2" - and so it has gone. Forecasts for the next 7 days keep looking like this one, but note how we are near the south edge of the Big Numbers.

One of these systems will eventually stall over us, but October will probably end before that happens - so it will end dry but with a wet setup for November.

In the meantime, we're about to get 1½ inches to close out the month. If we get anything close to that, we'll at least be halfway to normal for October. Yet again: we'll see.

the 'new' thing

The gx85 triggered a kit avalanche: a small-lens μ43 kit has revealed itself, and the E-M1 and its super kit lens became less valuable relative to other possibilities. After some browsing (an ever-present danger for me), the eM1, 14-150, 30mm macro and a fine 55-300 Pentax left the building. 

In exchange, a Sony 'alpha' A7 mk.ii and 28-75mm OSS lens have  arrived! The pair has settled into a case and been fitted for a shoulder strap. The A7's relatively low grade brought the price within trading distance, and its features are winners for what I do: in-body IS, tilt screen (not touch enabled), a large sensor without massive pixel count, HD video without cropping from sensor field of view, many customizing options and USB charging. I didn't know how many clicks had been put on the shutter, but sub-28k is a nice low number. It also means that companies like TTArtisan, Sigma and Tamron make lenses for the system - unlike Pentax K, sadly. My K-s2 days might be numbered.. but my K-mount lenses definitely remain in play!

This gives me two µ-USB-chargeable cameras (yay for power banks!), and three distinctly different feature sets and sensor sizes! 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

A few optical dominoes fell rather swiftly, once I found an la-EA3 Sony/E to Minolta/A adapter. 

For compactness I went with the bargain from my new friends, a TTArtisan 50mm f/2, which will arrive by slow boat across the wide Pacific. Hopefully TTA will offer a few more f/2 bargains soon!*

Another boat will carry an A-mount copy of the Tamron SP A005 70-300mm with its EA3 compatible USD focus motor. I'd already ordered a Maxxum 100-300 Apo + Maxxum 70-210/3.5-4.5 (2nd-gen 'lite beercan'), but the EA3 can't autofocus with them. We'll pick at least one winner from my three fine choices.

And for close shots, 10+16mm extension tubes (bright blue ones!) are on the way.

My plan for now is to get 20 and 35mm Tamrons at some point*, and have a kit of 20-35-50 primes (plus 85-135 Pentax), and the two zooms.  

I have no proof of more need than these: not now, at least.

* if the TTArtisan 21mm doesn't persuade me!

light rinse, then repeat

 

So we had 1/2 inch on July 5-6, then a mere trace for sixty-plus days - then just under 1/2" the 28-29th of September. On to October.. hm, this looks familiar. A week of dry days, and now 85° would be almost twenty degrees above normal! This won't last long; it's October after all. I always think a typical October starts around 80°, then a small storm and 70 is a challenge, then another storm, and 65° is a memory. By Halloween even sixty is in the past (except for the infamous tropic/pineapple storms of winter) and it's either raining or foggy with mist. Cue the leaf drop!

I mad-rushed our deck to completion this past week, and O I Hurt. A couple days of pressure washing, then a day's rental of a heavy-duty sander with a weight collar, then a fast day of staining before those two wet days could soak the vulnerable wood. Timing was excellent, but my aches are numerous. Clearly the next project needs to be the pump on our empty hot tub..

We picked up a new 60-volt electric lawn mower, which didn't quite get the time to finish the yard due to the deck becoming a weather priority. Looks like next week will get that finished.. followed by renting a brush cutter to reclaim a goodly chunck of property from the wild and crazy blackberry vines. Several of those are attempting to close our (and our neighbor's!) driveway, so the rental beast will make quick work of it. Bummer that I'll be doing it in shorts and a tank top though: those stickers will hurt!! :^o

 

Update - forecast temps have dropped a bit, so overalls will be available in the Sticker War! 😬

Update II - still nice, possibly a few 80° temps again?

HOWEVER:

Note that by the 21st, autumn arrives wearing its grey costume. Cliff Mass at u.Wash expects the End to come that day as well via the ECMWF ensembles - as it generally does at some point after the 15th.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/10/northwest-winter-starts-on-october-21.html

Update fini - forecast is still holding true. We didn't reach 80°, but we did hit 77° on the 15th!

another dry month wrapping up

 Here's the Wx Underground forecast for the rest of September.

So our driest and first 0.00" month (August) could be followed by our 2nd-driest! We are at 0.01" as of now, and showers keep disappearing from our forecast about five days out. Our 2nd driest is currently 0.03" so it could be close.

We're now at day 78 since the last true rain - the day with 0.01 was the first day above a trace since July 6th. A half-dozen trace days also occurred. 

Our Jul-Sep amount is 13% of normal - a very dry summer. Last year those three months were 132% of normal. As the three driest months it's less surprising to vary wildly from a small average than for other three-month periods.. but that's quite a swing.

Update - forecast is (for once) getting wetter - we'll see about that!

three-day birthday celebration!

 Four, if you count Earth years!

I was going over my solar-system date calculator, which determines my age based on the orbits of the other planets. I extended my calculator to include my wife several years back.

I've just become aware that we have three consecutive birth-days coming up in late November! On the 21st, my wife will have been alive for 204 orbits of Mecrury - so hot cake for her! The next two birth-days are all mine, as on consecutive days I hit 107 orbits of Venus and 35 Martian years. By including my neice's earth-birthday on the 24th, the party just goes on and on.. :^)

Cheap thrills are the best ones!