a first glance at winter

Our moisture has come from the south so far this rainy season, so ski resorts and winter-focused events have not fared well. Many storms near California will do that, and el Niño often leaves its mark to our south, pushing warmer air our way to limit snowpack. It does not make us immune to winter weather though!

Today's Wx-Underground forecasts have turned toward snow about a week from now, which is surprising. Many models have made this shift, however; shown here is the well-regarded European model's view on Friday morning 1/12. This is pretty much the classic pattern for white weather down low, with cold air just onshore and marine moisture willing to be pulled in just to its south!

This could change in six hours with the next model runs, and in the course of a week's modeling the timing and location will likely revise a few more times. Still, it's notable. 

We'll be watching..

7Jan update: the forecast has twisted several times as to depth of cold air and accumulation, but the 12-13th remains white at our 750' elevation. Values have varied from 3½ to 12 inches from run to run!

7-16 recap?

Curiously enough, winter weather began abruptly on Tuesday the 9th, with over 6" on the ground on Tuesday morning. It was a strong suspicion but nothing more on Monday night as we drove back from Anacortes in downpours.

That settled down to 4" by Friday 1/12, when we topped off the crunchy old snow with 4" of fresh true powder. The arctic front dropped us to 16° at night through Monday the 15th. Today the cold air was overrun by a front coming from the SW; only a pinch of fz/rain has fallen so far, and the forecast has us above freezing by sunrise. It will take a day or two for the snow to vamish, but the wild times will return to normal in 36 hours or so.

7-17 - It was a good try, but it took until 10am to reach freezing, and 2pm to reach 35. 

Time to start shoveling the driveway!