a white Christmas? Keep dreaming

 December has been calm though not bright - we are around 25% of normal for the month as of the 20th. A pre-Christmas chill is coming a few days too soon, and a tropical tap will erase any wintry weather with time to spare.

Our forecast over the last week has been very consistent: Chaos! A few days back we were looking at 6" snow on the ground this week.. but the Arctic front decided Seattle was far enough, give or take Olympia. We've been mid-30s and damp, while Anacortes had over 6" in our stead. Now the moisture is leaving and the front will drop for a very cold Wed/Thu spell. By Friday morning we could be under a coating of ice, which is very rare for us in the hill-top. By Friday evening the semi-tropical air will win out and a very wet Christmas weekend will erase the cold memories.

 

Here's the latest estimate for our transition at 750' elevation.  Over 1/4" of ice before we get above freezing. About 1½" of rain then takes over through the 25th, and more to follow.

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Transition Reality: mostly sleet not ZR, and less than 1/4" of that in total. Christmas Eve was all rain, but not warm enough to get the ice beneath actually melted. As of 3PM it's still in the 30s here on the hill-top.

 

Christmas Eve Update - here's a forecast of total 'rainfall' through 4PM on the 31st! We're ~6.2" short of our normalcy target. What does this show? 

Hm, 5-7 inches - that could work!

This would be the third consecutive month that we needed to make up over 50% of our deficit in the last week. We hit 69% and 95% for Oct/Nov, but have yet to reach 100%.. 

decisions

Sony's system has several choices for adapting A-mount (Minolta, Sony phase 1) lenses. Each does well when matched up with the 'right' camera and the 'right' lens. Does your lens have a motor? Is your camera body a 4th generation or 3rd, or 2nd? 

If some of your lenses have motors and some don't .. well, you need to sort out your priorities!

So here's my main two options:

• Current: LA-EA3 + a fully functional Tamron SP 70-300. I also have the native Sony 28-70oss, and Minolta zooms that work but without AF.
• Plan B: LA-EA4 would provide AF for the Minoltas 24-105, 70-210ii and 100-300 .. which means louder AF and a mere 4mm extra AF coverage (24-28mm). The Tamron would work fine with the ea4 - but only by using the more limited AF points of the ea4.

Most of my long shots are not AF dependent (e.g. Birds on Branches), and I'm old enough to remember how to pre-focus for the occasional BiF shot. 

I've heard the Tamron+ea3 has excellent image quality, for many users as good or better compared to their 100-300 Apo, but adapted lenses' performance is still short of native E-mount lenses.

The ea4 uses SLT tech and an infamous screw drive. How loud is it, and how versatile for manual focus? Some owners have reported that occasionally their AF pin stays in the lens, which limits MF; it seems to have a DMF setting which would retract the AF pin though. A dyxum post suggests that their ea4+ssm pairing is more accurate at long focal lengths than ea3+ssm. 

The Tamron is over 220g heavier than the 100-300, including the ~50g adapter difference - and the 70-210ii would be a bit lighter (and brighter)! I must say: that savings is worth something. There's also the autocorrection of native E-mount images to consider; the 28-70oss definitely gets treated, but who can say about the 24-105?

A-mount lenses transmit aperture and focal length to the camera for stabilization and exposure, which is nice. That's a bonus over my third option (an adapted Pentax 70-300apo from Sigma) without a $350 adapter. For that amount I could put both ea3 and ea4 in my bag!

12/16 Update - I picked up an EA4 adapter and it's on the way. Guess the Tamron can depart..

on to December..

We still have a week to go in November.. but the forecast now shows 'interesting' weather coming!

Too soon to determine anything with certainty. Forecast ensembles show a ±8 degree temperature range at 5000' elevation - so definitely snow, or not snow, or perhaps a mix with rain - are all in play! At least they mostly agree it will be damp enough to worry about whether that dampness is solid or liquid..

November will get perhaps another ½-1" of rain first, so we could reach 80% of normal.  So we'll head into December about four inches down in the bucket from Oct+Nov. 

The leaves are nearly down now, so at least branches will be less at risk if snow does fall. And the blackberry brambles will wait for 2023 for their comeuppance.

Start/Stop.. Restart?

 November is curious this year. One week wet then two weeks dry, and rain returning the 21st or 22nd. Patterns in the chaos, or chaos in the Pattern? 

I've seen no mushrooms this year. Our dry season lasted longer, and came back after those seven damp days. A week of frosty mornings has sent a signal to the spores: beware! 

Will the next wet spell come in time for emergence? We'll see ..

a major performance?

 After recent model underperformance, we're confronted with this: Tue and Wed forecasts for the weekend!

Oh my.

So if models continue with their wet bias, we should still expect two inches or more for the weekend. This shows about 4½" - and the trend is rising. Atmospheric River II looks much more formidable than its ancedent, and it could be true. 

Here's the midday Thursday NWS story - higher again. Trends are matching up, and model data suggests this is close to a one in fifty year event! As of Thursday morning, the atmo-river values are at the boundary between "strong" and "Extreme". And we're close to the central location for the stalled front to loiter, and with a pinch of elevation. Triple-7s on the tropical slot machine!

Here's the Thu midday forecast, with tonight now higher than before!

Also worth noting is the wind. South winds don't reach us here thanks to our 800-foot 'summit' on our south property line -- but a west wind could definitely do some damage to our well-leafed trees and evergreens. Gusts here have been bumped up to 41mph on the most recent meteogram, and the gusty period is greatly extended from three short peaks to a nearly continuous event!

As for that snow next week.. well, that's another story. Considering we were in the 70s two weeks ago, it's probably the most abrupt switch I'd have experienced if it pans out. Of course, in the Midwest/Northeast US it's known as a typical autumn week, flipping 70 to 35 and suntan lotion to mittens. I haven't spent time there so I wouldn't know - but "there's been talk"..

Final Tally: just over six inches for the first week of November, including 4.58" on the fourth. That's a new #4 on my lifetime-wettest list. 

And the snowfall didn't happen. Dry with frosty mornings instead. 

Underperformance

The wet season came right on time, as all the extended models had converged on 10/21. As to details though.. our wet spell has been rather dry. 

The first week was going to bring four inches in a hurry, but it was almost two instead. Last night's storm stalled north of us and wore out before moving, so 0.7" was less than 0.2" - and so it has gone. Forecasts for the next 7 days keep looking like this one, but note how we are near the south edge of the Big Numbers.

One of these systems will eventually stall over us, but October will probably end before that happens - so it will end dry but with a wet setup for November.

In the meantime, we're about to get 1½ inches to close out the month. If we get anything close to that, we'll at least be halfway to normal for October. Yet again: we'll see.

the 'new' thing

The gx85 triggered a kit avalanche: a small-lens μ43 kit has revealed itself, and the E-M1 and its super kit lens became less valuable relative to other possibilities. After some browsing (an ever-present danger for me), the eM1, 14-150, 30mm macro and a fine 55-300 Pentax left the building. 

In exchange, a Sony 'alpha' A7 mk.ii and 28-75mm OSS lens have  arrived! The pair has settled into a case and been fitted for a shoulder strap. The A7's relatively low grade brought the price within trading distance, and its features are winners for what I do: in-body IS, tilt screen (not touch enabled), a large sensor without massive pixel count, HD video without cropping from sensor field of view, many customizing options and USB charging. I didn't know how many clicks had been put on the shutter, but sub-28k is a nice low number. It also means that companies like TTArtisan, Sigma and Tamron make lenses for the system - unlike Pentax K, sadly. My K-s2 days might be numbered.. but my K-mount lenses definitely remain in play!

This gives me two µ-USB-chargeable cameras (yay for power banks!), and three distinctly different feature sets and sensor sizes! 

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A few optical dominoes fell rather swiftly, once I found an la-EA3 Sony/E to Minolta/A adapter. 

For compactness I went with the bargain from my new friends, a TTArtisan 50mm f/2, which will arrive by slow boat across the wide Pacific. Hopefully TTA will offer a few more f/2 bargains soon!*

Another boat will carry an A-mount copy of the Tamron SP A005 70-300mm with its EA3 compatible USD focus motor. I'd already ordered a Maxxum 100-300 Apo + Maxxum 70-210/3.5-4.5 (2nd-gen 'lite beercan'), but the EA3 can't autofocus with them. We'll pick at least one winner from my three fine choices.

And for close shots, 10+16mm extension tubes (bright blue ones!) are on the way.

My plan for now is to get 20 and 35mm Tamrons at some point*, and have a kit of 20-35-50 primes (plus 85-135 Pentax), and the two zooms.  

I have no proof of more need than these: not now, at least.

* if the TTArtisan 21mm doesn't persuade me!